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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 30, issue 5 | Copyright
Ann. Geophys., 30, 841-847, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Regular paper 14 May 2012

Regular paper | 14 May 2012

On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index

O. A. Amariutei1 and N. Yu. Ganushkina1,2 O. A. Amariutei and N. Yu. Ganushkina
  • 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • 2University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA

Abstract. An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (VBs) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min.

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