Journal cover Journal topic
Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 1.621 IF 1.621
  • IF 5-year value: 1.614 IF 5-year
    1.614
  • CiteScore value: 1.61 CiteScore
    1.61
  • SNIP value: 0.900 SNIP 0.900
  • SJR value: 0.910 SJR 0.910
  • IPP value: 1.58 IPP 1.58
  • h5-index value: 24 h5-index 24
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 80 Scimago H
    index 80
Volume 26, issue 12
Ann. Geophys., 26, 3989-3998, 2008
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-26-3989-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Ann. Geophys., 26, 3989-3998, 2008
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-26-3989-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  08 Dec 2008

08 Dec 2008

Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data

E. Saiz, C. Cid, and Y. Cerrato E. Saiz et al.
  • Space Research Group-Science, Departamento de Física, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain

Abstract. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields are considered traces of geoeffectiveness since they are a main agent of magnetic reconnection of solar wind and magnetosphere. The first part of this work revises the ability to forecast intense geomagnetic activity using different procedures available in the literature. The study shows that current methods do not succeed in making confident predictions. This fact led us to develop a new forecasting procedure, which provides trustworthy results in predicting large variations of Dst index over a sample of 10 years of observations and is based on the value Bz only. The proposed forecasting method appears as a worthy tool for space weather purposes because it is not affected by the lack of solar wind plasma data, which usually occurs during severe geomagnetic activity. Moreover, the results obtained guide us to provide a new interpretation of the physical mechanisms involved in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere using Faraday's law.

Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation
Share