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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 26, issue 2
Ann. Geophys., 26, 259–267, 2008
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-26-259-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: 3rd European Space Weather Week (ESWW)

Ann. Geophys., 26, 259–267, 2008
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-26-259-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  26 Feb 2008

26 Feb 2008

Predicting cycle 24 using various dynamo-based tools

M. Dikpati M. Dikpati
  • High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Abstract. Various dynamo-based techniques have been used to predict the mean solar cycle features, namely the amplitude and the timings of onset and peak. All methods use information from previous cycles, including particularly polar fields, drift-speed of the sunspot zone to the equator, and remnant magnetic flux from the decay of active regions. Polar fields predict a low cycle 24, while spot zone migration and remnant flux both lead to predictions of a high cycle 24. These methods both predict delayed onset for cycle 24. We will describe how each of these methods relates to dynamo processes. We will present the latest results from our flux-transport dynamo, including some sensitivity tests and how our model relates to polar fields and spot zone drift methods.

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