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Annales Geophysicae An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 17, issue 2
Ann. Geophys., 17, 273–279, 1999
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-999-0273-4
© European Geosciences Union 1999
Ann. Geophys., 17, 273–279, 1999
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-999-0273-4
© European Geosciences Union 1999

  28 Feb 1999

28 Feb 1999

Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

Z. Şen, M. Kadioğlu, and E. Batur Z. Şen et al.
  • Istanbul Technical University, Meteorology Department, Hydrometeorology Research Group, Maslak 80626 Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract. Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.

Key words. Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes) · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions)

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