© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index
1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
2University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA
Abstract. An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (VBs) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min.