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Ann. Geophys., 26, 441-446, 2008
www.ann-geophys.net/26/441/2008/
© European Geosciences Union 2008
Modelling of UV radiation variations at different time scales
J. L. Borkowski
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland
Abstract. Solar UV radiation variability in the period 1976–2006 is discussed with
respect to the relative changes in the solar global radiation, ozone
content, and cloudiness. All the variables were decomposed into separate
components, representing variations of different time scales, using wavelet
multi-resolution decomposition. The response of the UV radiation to the
changes in the solar global radiation, ozone content, and cloudiness depends
on the time scale, therefore, it seems reasonable to model separately the
relation between UV and explanatory variables at different time scales. The
wavelet components of the UV series are modelled and summed to obtain the fit
of observed series. The results show that the coarser time scale components
can be modelled with greater accuracy than fine scale components and the
fitted values calculated by this method are in better agreement with
observed values than values calculated by the regression method, in which
variables were not decomposed. The residual standard error in the case of
modelling with the use of wavelets is reduced by 14% in comparison to
the regression method without decomposition.
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