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Ann. Geophys., 26, 259-267, 2008
www.ann-geophys.net/26/259/2008/
© European Geosciences Union 2008
Predicting cycle 24 using various dynamo-based tools
M. Dikpati
High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Abstract. Various dynamo-based techniques have been used to predict
the mean solar cycle features, namely the amplitude and the
timings of onset and peak. All methods use information
from previous cycles, including particularly polar fields,
drift-speed of the sunspot zone to the equator, and
remnant magnetic flux from the decay of active regions.
Polar fields predict a low cycle 24, while spot zone migration
and remnant flux both lead to predictions of a high cycle 24.
These methods both predict delayed onset for cycle 24. We will
describe how each of these methods relates to dynamo processes.
We will present the latest results from our flux-transport
dynamo, including some sensitivity tests and how our model
relates to polar fields and spot zone drift methods.
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