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Ann. Geophys., 23, 3163-3170, 2005
www.ann-geophys.net/23/3163/2005/
© European Geosciences Union 2005
Operative center of the geophysical prognosis in Izmiran
A. V. Belov, S. P. Gaidash, K. D. Kanonidi, K. K. Kanonidi, V. D. Kuznetsov, and E. A. Eroshenko
Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), 142190, Troitsk, Russia
Abstract. IZMIRAN was founded about 65 years ago with one of the goals of carrying out
geomagnetic prognoses. More or less, this activity has been developed during
its entire history, but about 6 years ago this aim became sufficiently
feasible due to the organization of the Forecasting Center of helio-geo-physical
conditions. This Center appeared in response to new technologies, numerous
new data available and new social demand. The Center uses the extended
experimental basis of IZMIRAN and all available Internet sources. Its main
tasks consist of continuous monitoring of the processes at the Sun and in
the near-Earth environment, development of different kinds of prognoses and
delivering them to users. The main product is a short-term (1-6 days)
prognosis of geomagnetic activity (mainly daily Ap-index and maximum
Kp-index), a long-term (from weeks to years) prognosis and detailed
forecasting on the special fixed dates. Among its consumers it is worth
mentioning the Russian Space Agency, the Russian Ministry of Civil Defense,
Emergencies and Disaster Relief, railway departments, a number of medical
institutions, and mass media. In this work we discuss some activities of the
Center, along with presenting several examples of the real influence of
geomagnetic disturbances on different sides of human activity. Our six years
of experience show a growing interest in prognoses of this type and this
tendency seems to be retained.
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