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Ann. Geophys., 23, 3129-3138, 2005
www.ann-geophys.net/23/3129/2005/
© European Geosciences Union 2005
The influence of active region information on the prediction of solar flares: an empirical model using data mining
M. Núñez, R. Fidalgo, M. Baena, and R. Morales
Department of Computer Sciences, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos s/n, Málaga 29 071, Spain
Abstract. Predicting the occurrence of solar flares is a challenge of great importance
for many space weather scientists and users. We introduce a data mining
approach, called Behavior Pattern Learning (BPL), for automatically
discovering correlations between solar flares and active region data, in
order to predict the former. The goal of BPL is to predict the interval of
time to the next solar flare and provide a confidence value for the associated
prediction. The discovered correlations are described in terms of
easy-to-read rules. The results indicate that active region dynamics is
essential for predicting solar flares.
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