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Ann. Geophys., 23, 3115-3128, 2005
www.ann-geophys.net/23/3115/2005/
© European Geosciences Union 2005
Solar activity: nowcasting and forecasting at the SIDC
D. Berghmans, R. A. M. Van der Linden, P. Vanlommel, R. Warnant, A. Zhukov, E. Robbrecht, F. Clette, O. Podladchikova, B. Nicula, J.-F. Hochedez, L. Wauters, and S. Willems
Royal Observatory of Belgium, Ringlaan -3- Avenue Circulaire, 1180 Brussels, Belgium
Abstract. The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC) is the
World Data Center for the production and the distribution of the
International Sunspot Index, coordinating a network of about 80 stations
worldwide. From this core activity, the SIDC has grown in recent years to a
European center for nowcasting and forecasting of solar activity on all
timescales. This paper reviews the services (data, forecasts, alerts,
software) that the SIDC currently offers to the scientific community. The
SIDC operates instruments both on the ground and in space. The USET
telescope in Brussels produces daily white light and Hα images.
Several members of the SIDC are co-investigators of the EIT instrument
onboard SOHO and are involved in the development of the next generation of
Europe's solar weather monitoring capabilities. While the SIDC is staffed
only during day-time (7 days/week), the monitoring service is a 24 h
activity thanks to the implementation of autonomous software for data
handling and analysis and the sending of automated alerts. We will give an
overview of recently developed techniques for visualization and automated
analysis of solar images and detection of events significant for space
weather (e.g. CMEs or EIT waves). As part of the involvement of the SIDC in
the ESA Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications we have developed
services dedicated to the users of the Global Positioning System (GPS). As a
Regional Warning Center (RWC) of the International Space Environment Service
(ISES), the SIDC produces daily forecasts of flaring probability,
geomagnetic activity and 10.7 cm radio flux. The accuracy of these forecasts
will be investigated through an in-depth quality analysis.
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