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Ann. Geophys., 23, 3019-3026, 2005
www.ann-geophys.net/23/3019/2005/
© European Geosciences Union 2005
Monitoring and forecasting of great radiation hazards for spacecraft and aircrafts by online cosmic ray data
L. I. Dorman
1Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and Israel Space Agency, Qazrin 12900, Israel
2Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk 142092, Moscow Region, Russia
Abstract. We show that an exact forecast of great radiation hazard in space, in
the magnetosphere, in the atmosphere and on the ground can be made by using
high-energy particles (few GeV/nucleon and higher) whose transportation from
the Sun is characterized by a much bigger diffusion coefficient than for small
and middle energy particles. Therefore, high energy particles come from the
Sun much earlier (8-20 min after acceleration and escaping into solar
wind) than the main part of smaller energy particles (more than 30-60 min
later), causing radiation hazard for electronics and personal health,
as well as spacecraft and aircrafts. We describe here principles of an automatic
set of programs that begin with "FEP-Search", used to determine the beginning of a large FEP
event. After a positive signal from "FEP-Search", the following programs
start working: "FEP-Research/Spectrum", and then "FEP-Research/Time of Ejection",
"FEP-Research /Source" and "FEP-Research/Diffusion", which online
determine properties of FEP generation and propagation. On the basis of
the obtained information, the next set of programs immediately start to work:
"FEP-Forecasting/Spacecrafts", "FEP-Forecasting/Aircrafts",
"FEP-Forecasting/Ground", which determine the expected differential and
integral fluxes and total fluency for spacecraft on different orbits,
aircrafts on different airlines, and on the ground, depending on altitude
and cutoff rigidity. If the level of radiation hazard is expected
to be dangerous for high level technology or/and personal health, the following
programs will be used "FEP-Alert/Spacecrafts", "FEP-Alert/ Aircrafts",
"FEP-Alert/Ground".
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