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Ann. Geophys., 23, 3003-3007, 2005
www.ann-geophys.net/23/3003/2005/
© European Geosciences Union 2005
Prediction of galactic cosmic ray intensity variation for a few (up to 10-12) years ahead on the basis of convection-diffusion and drift model
L. I. Dorman
1Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and Israel Space Agency, P. O. Box 2217, Qazrin 12900, Israel
2Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk 142092, Moscow Region, Russia
Abstract. We determine the
dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient
and other parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms of cosmic
ray (CR) long-term variation, depending on particle energy, the level of
solar activity (SA) and general solar magnetic field. This important
information we obtain on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into
account the theory of convection-diffusion and drift global modulation of
galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and the predictions which
are regularly published elsewhere of expected SA variation in the near future and
prediction of next future SA cycle, we may make a prediction of the expected in
the near future long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. We show that by this
method we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years,
and may be more, in dependence for what period can be made definite
prediction of SA) galactic cosmic ray intensity variation in the
interplanetary space on different distances from the Sun, in the Earth's
magnetosphere, and in the atmosphere at different altitudes and latitudes.
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