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Ann. Geophys., 22, 2239-2243, 2004
www.ann-geophys.net/22/2239/2004/
© European Geosciences Union 2004
Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number
E. Echer1, N. R. Rigozo1,2, D. J. R. Nordemann1, and L. E. A. Vieira1
1Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Av. Astronautas, 1758 ZIP 12201-970, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
2Faculdade de Tecnologia Thereza Porto Marques (FAETEC) ZIP 12308-320, Jacareí, Brazil
Abstract. Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is
performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral
components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles
17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods
significant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine series
to reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and
24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2
against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178<±13.2
against 157.6 observed). Solar cycle 23 was predicted to have a peak in 2000
with maximum amplitude of 125±13.2, in good agreement with the 119.6
observed. The minimum of solar cycle 23 is predicted to occur around
2007-2008. For solar cycle 24, the maximum is predicted to occur in 2012
(115±13.2) or 2013 (117±13.2) and this shall be a very weak
solar cycle.
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