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Ann. Geophys., 21, 1101-1109, 2003
www.ann-geophys.net/21/1101/2003/
© European Geosciences Union 2003
Predictability of geomagnetic series
E. Bellanger1, V. G. Kossobokov1,2, and J.-L. Le Mouël1
1Laboratoire de géomagnétisme, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4, place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France
2International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 79-2 Warshavskoye shosse, Moscow 113556, Russia
Abstract. The aim of this paper is
to lead a practical, rational and rigorous approach concerning what can be
done, based on the knowledge of magnetic series, in the field of prediction of
the extreme geomagnetic events. We compare the magnetic vector differential at
different locations computed with different resolutions, from an entire day to
minutes. We study the classical correlations and the simplest possible
prediction scheme to conclude a high level of predictability of the magnetic
vector variation. The results obtained are far from a random guessing: the
error diagrams are either comparable with earthquake prediction studies or
out-perform them when the minute sampling is used in accounting for hourly
magnetic vector variation. We demonstrate how the magnetic extreme events can
be predicted from the hourly value of the magnetic variation with a lead time
of several hours. We compute the 2-D empirical distribution of consecutive
values of the magnetic vector variation for the estimation of conditional
probabilities of different types. The achieved results encourage further
development of the approach to prediction of the extreme geomagnetic events.
Key words. Ionosphere (modeling and
forecasting) – Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms)
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