Abstract. In this paper we present a quantitative comparison between a large data base of medium-scale atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) observed by radio interferometry of transionospheric radio sources and the results of a numerical simulation of the observed effects. The simulation includes: (i) the propagation and dissipation of AGWs up to ionospheric heights and (ii) the calculation of the subsequent slant TEC perturbations integrated along the path to the radio sources. We show that the observed azimuthal distribution of AGWs can be deeply biased. Predicted results are found to be consistent with previous extensive observations using radio beacons aboard geostationary satellites. These observations are rediscussed in view of the present predictions.